Explaining the Unthinkable: Israel’s 2025 Airstrike on Qatar Through the Lens of the Rational Actor Model
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.52690/jswse.v7i3.1562Keywords:
Airstrike of Israel, Israeli–Palestinian Conflict, Qatar Territory, Rational Actor ModelAbstract
This study examines a hypothetical Israeli airstrike on Doha, Qatar, on 9 September 2025, targeting Hamas leadership, to explore Israel’s decision-making through the Rational Actor Model (RAM). The research aims to understand why Israel might consider military action in a Gulf state despite potential diplomatic and geopolitical risks. Using a theory-driven scenario analysis with secondary data, including official documents, academic publications, and credible news sources, the study reconstructs Israel’s strategic objectives, policy alternatives, and expected consequences. Findings suggest that, within the RAM framework, Israel’s action could be interpreted as a calculated choice prioritizing national security and deterrence, while balancing potential costs such as regional instability and international condemnation. The study provides practical insights for policymakers on the complexities of preventive military strategies and their broader implications for regional diplomacy. The research contributes to international relations scholarship by demonstrating the application of RAM in analyzing hypothetical extreme security scenarios, highlighting the interplay between rational calculation, strategic objectives, and geopolitical constraints.
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